CME Scoreboard

Prediction for CME (2013-05-17T09:24:00-CME-001)

## NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Space Weather Research Center ( SWRC )
## Message Type: Space Weather Alert
##
## Message Issue Date: 2013-05-17T22:45:00Z
## Message ID: 20130517-AL-003
## Summary:
Update on CME with ID 2013-05-17T09:24:00-CME-001 (see alerts 20130517-AL-001 and 20130517-AL-002). Based on preliminary heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact the Earth and Spitzer. Simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach Spitzer at 2013-05-19T02:09Z and the Earth at about 2013-05-19T15:37Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 5-6 (minor to moderate).
Updated CME parameters:
Estimated speed: ~1400 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 47 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): -40/13 in Heliocentric Earth Ecliptic coordinates.
Links to the movies of the modeled event:
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20130517_112500_anim.tim-den.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20130517_112500_anim.tim-vel.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20130517_112500_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20130517_112500_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20130517_112500_anim.tim-den-Stereo_B.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20130517_112500_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_B.gif
## Notes:
The CME is associated with an M3.2 class flare (peaked at 2013-05-17T08:57) from active region AR 1748 that has been generating activity over the past several days. 
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